At the peak of the Hormuz blockade, over 230 loaded oil tankers were sitting inside the Persian Gulf with nowhere to go. Today's reopening announcement means they can finally transit out under IRGC-coordinated routing. That's a massive amount of crude hitting the market all at once. The question is whether global ports and refineries can absorb that kind of sudden flow, or whether we get a temporary glut followed by another crunch if the ceasefire collapses April 21.
Shipping insurers are still charging war-risk premiums. Tells you something about confidence levels.