Nvidia stock fades despite the beat
NVDA finished -0.9% on the session even after last night's blowout: $81.6B revenue, $1.87 EPS, $80B buyback, Q2 guide $89-92.8B. The market wanted an even louder data center signal and didn't get it. Classic "priced in" tape, the second derivative of AI capex matters more now than the absolute number. The cleanup also tells you who was leaning long into the print.

Stocks reverse losses on Iran peace headlines
S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.3%, Dow +0.5%. Opened weaker after Nvidia faded, then rebounded mid-session on reports that the US-Iran peace proposal is back under active review via Pakistani mediation. Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir is traveling to Tehran today. Same headline that capped this morning's risk-off attempt.

Oil cracks lower as the de-escalation tone builds
Brent slid back to $104, WTI dropped below $100 for the first time in over a week. The geopolitical risk premium is unwinding faster than the actual diplomatic progress, which is what happens when markets price hope before paperwork. Hormuz is still technically closed, the price action just stopped caring today.

Bitcoin makes its first real bounce in three weeks
BTC opened at $77,472 and is holding $77,200, up about $200 from yesterday. ETH stable at $2,116. The $76K floor we've been pointing at finally produced a bid, but until BTC closes above the 200-day at $81K-$82K, this stays in the corrective bucket. One bounce day does not flip the trend.

Starship V3 launches tonight, weather a factor
SpaceX's Flight 12 lifts off in a window from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m. CT, with only 45% favorable conditions at window open. First V3, first launch from Pad 2, Raptor 3 debut, 22 Starlink simulators on board. Watch the splashdown of Booster 19 in the Gulf seven minutes after liftoff. SpaceX wants a clean flight three weeks before the IPO roadshow starts.

SpaceX S-1 details landing all day
Yesterday's prospectus is still being parsed: Starlink delivers two-thirds of revenue and $1.2B in Q1 profit, Musk holds 85.1% of voting power, the $80B raise targets a $1.7T valuation. Combined with reports that OpenAI plans to file in the coming weeks, the IPO calendar through June looks crowded.

Pakistan-mediated talks structurally important
The negotiation framework continues to run through Islamabad, building on the April 8 two-week ceasefire and the April 11-12 Islamabad Talks. Open questions: Hormuz freedom of navigation, Iran's nuclear and ballistic program, reconstruction, sanctions. The pieces that move oil and gold are all on this table.

Treasury yields ease slightly
The 30-year and 10-year both came in a few basis points off yesterday's multi-year highs, helped by the UK CPI miss yesterday and the Iran de-escalation. Still elevated, still the dominant macro pressure. The bounce in equities happened despite yields, not because of them.

Takeaway: A day where everything that was supposed to break out either faded (Nvidia) or quietly bounced (BTC, stocks). Iran peace headlines did more for risk than the biggest tech print of the quarter. Starship V3 tonight is the next binary event before everyone pivots to the IPO calendar.