Fed Rate Cut Odds for June Collapse to 18%, Markets Now Price 48% Chance of No Cut All Year
Futures markets are pricing just an 18.4% probability of a June rate cut, per CME FedWatch. Nearly half of traders now see zero cuts in 2026. The implied year-end fed funds rate sits at 3.43%, barely below the current 3.64%.
From our macro chart perspective, this is the DXY story. Dollar strength was confirmed early this year with a five-wave move off the January low, and a Fed that can’t cut is the fundamental engine behind it. DXY at 98.70 and pushing toward the 100.50 resistance we’ve been watching. The mechanism is simple: no cuts means higher real yields, which pulls capital into USD and out of risk assets. TLT holding at $86.53, still above the critical $85 break level. But the margin is thin. If that level goes, our read is that the tightening regime gets significantly harder for equities and crypto alike.
Fed Rate Cut Odds for June Collapse to 18%, Markets Now Price 48% Chance of No Cut All Year
Futures markets are pricing just an 18.4% probability of a June rate cut, per CME FedWatch. Nearly half of traders now see zero cuts in 2026. The implied year-end fed funds rate sits at 3.43%, barely below the current 3.64%. From our macro chart perspective, this is the DXY story. Dollar strength was confirmed early this year with a five-wave move off the January low, and a Fed that can't cut is the fundamental engine behind it. DXY at 98.70 and pushing toward the 100.50 resistance we've been watching. No cuts means higher real yields, which pulls capital into USD and out of risk assets. TLT holding at $86.53, still above the critical $85 break level. But the margin is thin.
