Brent crude holding above $112 as the war keeps spreading. More actors, more risk, more pressure on an already strained energy market. And it shows. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial traffic, disrupting roughly 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flows.
Goldman Sachs estimates a $14 to $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium baked into current prices. With equities posting their fifth straight weekly decline and Treasury yields at nine-month highs, the broader macro picture is getting harder to ignore.