The ceasefire lasted about as long as everyone expected. Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again within a day of agreeing to a truce, citing Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon as a violation. Brent is back at $96, WTI at $95.50, both climbing after briefly dipping below $100 on ceasefire optimism. The math here is ugly.
About 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day are still offline, roughly 5% of global supply. Goldman says if this drags another month, Brent averages above $100 for all of 2026. Shipowners won't move through the strait without security guarantees, and nobody's offering those. US-Iran talks are scheduled for this weekend, but the trust deficit is enormous.
Every time markets price in peace, the strait closes again. Hard to trade that.