Trump announced the ceasefire on social media, but it only covers Lebanon, not the broader Iran conflict. Netanyahu backed the Iran truce but said Lebanon was a separate matter, which Iran immediately pushed back on.

Meanwhile the US naval blockade of Iran's ports is fully operational. Only eight vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the first full day. Brent is at $94.89 and WTI at $90.72, both slightly softer as traders bet on a deal before the April 21 deadline.

But the blockade is real, the ships aren't moving, and oil is one headline away from a $10 swing. Lots of optimism priced in, not a lot of confirmation yet.