The numbers are in. March CPI printed 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since early 2024, driven almost entirely by energy. Gas prices blew past $4/gallon as Hormuz stayed shut and the Iran conflict pushed WTI to $98.46 and Brent to $96.36. Core CPI held steadier, but the headline number is the one that gets the attention.
Last time inflation ran this hot, the Fed was still hiking. This time they're stuck at 3.5%-3.75% and talking about maybe cutting once this year. But there's a growing minority on the FOMC openly floating hikes again. Hard to cut rates when gas prices are doing this.