Iran Stalemate Deepens, Oil Pushes Toward $110
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade, but included zero nuclear concessions. Rubio called it unacceptable. Brent crude jumped nearly 3% to $110, and there's no resolution in sight. Our macro read has oil in a choppy B-wave rally with $135+ possible. This is exactly that kind of grind.

FOMC Meeting Begins, Rates Expected to Hold
The Fed's two-day meeting kicked off today with rates widely expected to stay at 3.50-3.75%. CPI running at 3.3%, energy costs surging. No one expects a cut anymore in 2026. This is likely Powell's final meeting as chair, with Kevin Warsh's succession imminent. The tightening regime MCO has been tracking remains firmly in place.

S&P 500 Slips, Nasdaq Down 0.9%
S&P closed at 7,138 (-0.49%), Nasdaq at 24,663 (-0.9%), Dow barely red at 49,141. Tech led the decline. The broader market held up relatively well, but leadership is narrowing. What our charts have been signaling: counter-trend rallies losing momentum.

OpenAI Missed Revenue Targets, AI Spending Narrative Under Pressure
A WSJ report said OpenAI fell short of its own revenue and user growth targets. CFO Sarah Friar reportedly raised concerns about whether the company can cover its computing contracts if growth doesn't accelerate. Oracle and CoreWeave dropped on the news. The AI capex story that powered markets for two years is starting to get questioned.

Bitcoin Rejected at $80K Again, Drops Below $77K
BTC at ~$76,400, down 1.6%. Two attempts at $80K failed last week. Fear & Greed index fell to 33. ETF outflows resumed. Ahead of FOMC, crypto is in risk-off mode. MCO's macro read has Bitcoin in a higher-degree correction. The failed B-wave bounce pattern is playing out.

Gold Drops Nearly 2% as Dollar Strengthens
Gold fell to $4,596, down $84 on the day. Stronger dollar and rising yields ahead of the Fed decision did the damage. MCO's analysis has gold in a wave 4 correction with one more low possible before the longer-term rally resumes. Still the structural long once this corrective phase completes.

SEC Chairman Declares End to Regulation by Enforcement
At Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced joint guidance with the CFTC and an upcoming "innovation exemption" for onchain tokenized securities trading. FBI Director Patel called open-source crypto code "protected speech." A real shift in regulatory tone, even if execution will take time.

GM Crushes Q1 Earnings, Stock Up 4%
General Motors reported $3.70 adjusted EPS vs. $2.62 expected. One of the clearest beats of the season so far. In a market where most earnings surprises are getting sold, GM actually held its gains. Interesting signal for the value vs. growth rotation.

Takeaway: Risk assets drifted lower into the FOMC meeting, oil kept climbing on a stalled Iran deal, and the first cracks appeared in the AI spending narrative. The tightening regime holds.