Trump Says Iran Asked for Ceasefire, Will Address the Nation Tonight
Iran denied it. Trump's condition: reopen Hormuz first. His primetime speech tonight is expected to lay out a timeline for winding down operations within weeks. Markets moved on the headline before any deal actually exists. Our macro read has been clear: oil stays elevated as long as Hormuz is closed, regardless of what anyone says on camera.

Trump Threatens to Pull the US Out of NATO
Called it a "paper tiger" and said withdrawal is "beyond reconsideration." The trigger: NATO allies refusing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Congress passed a law in 2023 requiring Senate approval for withdrawal, but Trump is reportedly exploring executive workarounds. Another front of geopolitical uncertainty opening up just as markets try to price in de-escalation.

S&P 500 Rallies 0.72% to Open Q2, Nasdaq Up 1.16%
S&P closed at 6,575, Nasdaq at 21,841, Dow at 46,566. Tech led. Semis strong. The bounce came after the worst Q1 for the S&P since 2022, down 4.6%. MCO's macro framework still points to a corrective phase with counter-trend rallies only. This looks like one of them.

Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 2.5% as Energy Costs Spike
Up from 1.9% in February. Energy prices flipped from minus 3.1% to plus 4.9% in one month. Germany hit 2.8%, Spain 3.3%. The Hormuz closure is now feeding directly into European consumer prices. ECB rate cut expectations are getting complicated fast. Tightening financial conditions globally, which is exactly what our thesis has been flagging.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comes in at 52.7, Beats Expectations
Third straight month of expansion. New orders at 53.5. The US manufacturing sector is holding up better than the headline mood suggests. Good news for GDP, but it also gives the Fed less reason to cut. Stronger data plus rising energy costs equals a tighter policy environment. DXY staying firm fits.

SpaceX Files Confidentially for IPO at $1.75 Trillion Valuation
Targeting a June listing, aiming to raise $75 billion. That would crush Saudi Aramco's record. SpaceX merged with xAI earlier this year, blurring the line between rockets and AI infrastructure. It's the first of three expected mega-IPOs, ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Capital is concentrating at the very top of the tech stack.

Oracle Cuts Up to 30,000 Jobs to Fund $156 Billion AI Buildout
Termination emails went out at 6 a.m. across the US, India, Canada, Mexico. About 18% of Oracle's workforce. ORCL is down 25% this year, free cash flow at negative $10 billion. The company took on $58 billion in new debt in two months. The AI infrastructure arms race is now directly displacing headcount at enterprise scale.

Bitcoin Holds Above $68,000, Fear Index at 8
BTC around $68,400. ETH near $2,130. Extreme fear, no capitulation. March was the first green monthly candle since August 2025, snapping a five-month losing streak. But Q1 overall was down 22%. MCO's working assumption remains a larger corrective structure. A B-wave bounce is possible but the macro environment keeps a lid on it.

CoinShares Lists on Nasdaq via $1.2 Billion SPAC Deal
The European crypto asset manager now trades under CSHR. $6 billion in AUM, 39 products. Another crypto firm migrating to US markets. Institutional infrastructure keeps building even while prices sit in a fear zone. Structure and sentiment moving in opposite directions.

Gold Surges Past $4,780
Closed near $4,782 after opening around $4,749. Safe haven flows are relentless even on a day where risk rallied. That disconnect says a lot. Our longer-term view has gold as the structural long once the current wave 4 correction completes. It looks like it's trying to find that floor now.

Takeaway: Markets rallied on ceasefire hope and strong data, but the structural risks (Hormuz, NATO, tightening conditions) haven't gone anywhere. A relief day, not a turning point.