USS Spruance Seizes Iranian Cargo Ship Touska, Hormuz Shuts Down Again

The US Navy fired on and boarded the Iranian-flagged Touska in the Gulf of Oman after it tried to break through the blockade. Tehran called it piracy and promised retaliation. The ceasefire that fueled last week’s rally is now hanging by a thread, exactly the kind of event our macro read flagged as the risk to any counter-trend bounce.

Oil Surges Toward $100 as Strait Closure Enters Third Month

Brent jumped 5.9% to $95.71, WTI up 7% to $89.94. Thirteen million barrels a day remain offline. The B-wave rally in oil that MCO’s analysis has been tracking is getting another geopolitical accelerant, and $100 Brent is now a matter of when, not if.

US Futures Point Sharply Lower After Last Week’s Monster Rally

Dow futures down 407 points, S&P off 0.67%, Nasdaq down 0.57%. Last week the S&P gained 4.5% to 7,126, Nasdaq popped 7.2% to 24,468. Classic counter-trend rally meeting reality. What our charts have been signaling all along: these bounces don’t hold in a corrective regime.

Gold Holds $4,765 as Safe Haven Bid Stays Firm Despite Correction

Still down from the $5,032 high in March, but not giving up much ground either. Silver at $77.73. With Hormuz shut again and oil near $100, the inflation picture that would let the Fed cut is getting further away. The wave 4 correction MCO’s analysis has been tracking looks like it’s finding a floor here, and the structural long case remains intact.

OpenAI Signs $20 Billion Chip Deal with Cerebras, Biggest Non-Nvidia AI Deal Ever

Three-year deal doubles the original $10 billion agreement from January. OpenAI gets warrants for up to 10% of Cerebras, which plans an IPO at $35 billion next month. AI capex is not slowing down even as the broader economy wobbles.

Snap Cuts 1,000 Jobs After AI Takes Over 65% of Coding Work

Sixteen percent of the workforce gone. CEO Spiegel said smaller teams can now match the output of larger ones. Stock jumped 11%. The AI displacement cycle is accelerating and the market is rewarding it.

Bitcoin Holds $75,200 Despite Risk-Off, ETH Recovers to $2,307

BTC opened weak at $73,820 but rallied back above $75K by morning. Institutional ETF demand is providing a floor. Still looks like the B-wave bounce our analysis has been tracking, holding up better than expected but not confirming a trend reversal.

Biggest Earnings Week of 2026 Kicks Off: NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META

Nvidia rides an 11-session winning streak into its May 20 report. Apple at $270.23, Amazon reports April 29. The question: can earnings hold up a market that geopolitics is trying to pull apart.

Fed Holds Closed Board Meeting Today on Discount Rates

Rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Inflation projections revised up to 2.7% PCE. With oil surging again, the one rate cut the Fed penciled in for 2026 looks increasingly unlikely. Tightening conditions persist, consistent with the regime MCO’s macro framework has been describing.

Takeaway: The ceasefire rally lasted exactly one week before Hormuz, oil, and geopolitics pulled the floor out. Counter-trend bounces in a corrective regime, same story, new chapter.