Trump Promises "Extremely Hard" Strikes on Iran, Offers No Exit Strategy
The president's 19-minute primetime address promised two to three more weeks of heavy strikes but gave no timeline, no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and no conditions for de-escalation. Markets sold off hard initially. Our macro read has been that oil stays elevated and chaotic in this regime, and tonight confirmed there's no catalyst for that to change anytime soon.

Iran and Oman Draft Protocol to Monitor Hormuz Strait Traffic
Iranian state media reported that Tehran and Oman are drafting a joint protocol to "supervise and coordinate" ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets reversed sharply on the headline, with the Dow recovering from minus 600 points to close down just 418. It's the first concrete signal that some form of controlled reopening might be on the table, even if it falls far short of full normalization.

US Stocks Pare Massive Losses to Close Nearly Flat
The S&P 500 ended at 6,573, down just 0.04% after being down over 1% earlier. Nasdaq lost 0.4%. The intraday reversal was driven entirely by the Iran-Oman headline. Structurally nothing changed. MCO's macro view remains that we're in a corrective phase with only counter-trend rallies, and today's bounce off the lows fits that pattern.

Brent Crude Swings Between $103 and $106, Settles Around $105
Oil had a wild session. Brent dipped to near $103 on Hormuz hopes, then climbed back above $105 as traders realized a monitoring protocol is not the same as reopening shipping lanes. What our charts have been signaling for weeks: oil is in a choppy B-wave rally. Could go higher, but the path is unreliable. Every headline moves the barrel $3 in either direction.

Bitcoin Drops to $67,086 as Fear and Greed Index Hits 12
BTC fell 2.6% and the Fear and Greed Index collapsed to 12, the lowest in over two years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed another $173 million on Wednesday. The correction MCO's analysis has been tracking continues. In a tightening environment with a strengthening dollar, crypto remains under pressure. No confirmed bottom yet.

SpaceX Files Confidentially for IPO at a Potential $1.75 Trillion Valuation
Elon Musk's SpaceX-xAI merged entity filed with the SEC on Tuesday, setting the stage for what could be a June listing and the largest IPO in history. The company is looking to raise up to $75 billion. This will test whether mega-cap private valuations can hold in public markets during a correction.

Jobless Claims Fall to 202,000, Lowest in Nearly Two Years
Initial claims dropped 9,000 last week, well below the 212,000 estimate. The labor market remains in a "low-hire, low-fire" holding pattern. Strong enough to keep the Fed on hold, not strong enough to generate the kind of consumer confidence that would offset $4 gas and rising grocery prices.

Nike Crashes 15% After Triple Downgrade from Goldman, JPMorgan, and BofA
NKE hit $44.63, a nine-year low, after all three banks cut the stock on the same morning. China revenue expected to drop 20% next quarter. The broader signal: consumer discretionary is where tightening hits first, and patience on Wall Street is running out.

Saudi Arabia Intercepts Four Iranian Drones as Regional Attacks Continue
Iran's military dismissed Trump's claims of "decimated" capabilities, promising "more destructive" attacks. Saudi air defenses shot down at least four drones Thursday morning. Britain is now leading a 35-country diplomatic push to reopen Hormuz. Day 33 of the conflict, and the escalation ladder has no visible top.

Takeaway: Markets tried to find a bottom today on thin Hormuz hopes, but the underlying picture hasn't changed: oil is hostage to the war, the Fed is stuck, and risk assets have no catalyst for a sustained move higher.