Dow Soars 1,200 Points on Ceasefire, S&P +2.4%, Nasdaq +2.8%
The relief rally ran straight through the US session as the two-week Hormuz pause gave risk assets permission to breathe. Fits the counter-trend rally our read has been flagging, not the end of the corrective phase.

WTI Craters 17% to $93.42, Brent Follows to ~$96
Crude collapsed as the war premium drained in a single day, the biggest down move since the conflict started. The B-wave in oil did exactly what our view warned it would: chaotic and unreliable.

First Tankers Cross Hormuz Since Ceasefire, But Traffic Stays Thin
Only two tankers made the passage as Iran's coordination requirement and Israel-Lebanon strikes keep confusion high. The waterway is technically open, practically it's a trickle.

Israel Strikes Lebanon, Netanyahu Says Truce Does Not Cover It
The ceasefire clearly has seams. Pro-Iran factions in Iraq paused attacks for the same two weeks, but the Lebanon front stays live and is the obvious reason this whole thing could unravel before April 22.

Bitcoin Back to ~$71,900, ETH +6.3% to $2,240
Crypto caught the full relief move with ETH leading, classic B-wave behavior off recent lows. Working assumption stays an ABC correction until BTC actually reclaims structure, a one-day pop isn't it.

Gold $4,734, Silver Bounces Hard
Spot gold held near $4,734 with silver catching a sharp bid intraday despite the safe-haven unwind. Lines up with the view that the metals are structurally the cleanest longs once their own correction finishes.

Nvidia-OpenAI $100B Deal Moves Toward 10 Gigawatts
The first gigawatt of the Vera Rubin deployment is now dated for H2 2026 with OpenAI committed as the anchor tenant. Not a market-mover today, but the concentration risk in a single vendor keeps building.

US-Iran Talks Scheduled for Islamabad on April 10
Pakistan-mediated negotiations kick off Friday, which is the real test of whether the two-week pause becomes anything more. Markets are pricing optimism, the diplomats are starting from zero.

Fed Still Holding at 3.5-3.75%, One Cut Pencilled for 2026
FOMC projections continue to show PCE around 2.7% and one cut this year, though timing stays fuzzy with oil now doing the disinflation work for them. Dollar strength regime in our thesis stays intact.

Takeaway: A massive one-day relief trade built on a fragile two-week clock, every direction our thesis called (counter-trend rally, oil chaos, dollar holding, metals firm) confirmed itself in the same session.