Dow Surges 1,125 Points as Iran Peace Signals Spark Broad Rally
All three major indexes posted their best day since May. 441 of 500 S&P components closed green. The catalyst: reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian may be open to ending the war with guarantees. Counter-trend rallies like this are exactly what our macro framework expects in a corrective regime. Big green days feel good. They don't change the structure.

Trump Says War Won't Last Much Longer, Signals Flexibility on Hormuz
Trump told reporters the conflict could end soon and hinted at flexibility around Strait of Hormuz access. Markets treated it as a de-escalation signal. If Hormuz reopens, the oil premium unwinds fast, and with it a chunk of the inflation pressure keeping the Fed locked in place.

Brent Crude on Track for Record Monthly Gain
Brent traded around $107 on the day, pulling back from highs above $110. For March, crude is up roughly 55%. That is the largest monthly surge on record. MCO's macro read flagged oil as being in a choppy B-wave rally with $135+ possible. The war premium is doing the heavy lifting here.

Gold Hits $4,640, Up 1.8% on the Day
Gold continues to grind higher even on a risk-on day. That tells you something. In a tightening regime with war-driven inflation, gold is doing what our analysis expected: correcting earlier, now resuming its structural bid. The $5,000 level is back in the conversation.

Nasdaq Leads With +3.8%, Tech's Best Session in Months
Tech led the rally. Lumentum, an AI infrastructure play, was the top S&P gainer. The sector remains the most sensitive to rate expectations and geopolitical shifts. One peace headline and NASDAQ rips nearly 4%. That kind of volatility confirms the fragile positioning underneath.

FTX Recovery Trust Distributes $2.2 Billion to Creditors
The fourth payout round went live today. Total returned now sits at roughly $10 billion. Several creditor classes hit 100% recovery. Convenience class holders are at 120%. Capital returning to the ecosystem, though unlikely to flow straight back into spot crypto in this environment.

Bitcoin Holds Near $68K as Q1 Closes Red
BTC traded around $68,000, up slightly on the day but closing the quarter in the red. Fear and Greed Index at 11. Extreme fear. What our charts have been signaling: a higher-degree top is in, and we are working through a correction. The B-wave bounce thesis stays on the table if bonds hold.

DXY Holds Above 100, Gains Nearly 3% in March
The dollar index printed around 100.13. Monthly gain close to 3%, supported by safe-haven flows and rate expectations. This aligns directly with MCO's confirmed dollar bottom thesis. The five-wave move from January lows continues to play out. Next resistance at 100.50.

California Governor Signs AI Executive Order
Governor Newsom imposed new standards on AI companies doing business with the state. Requirements cover bias, surveillance, watermarking, and child safety. The regulatory tightening trend for AI is accelerating. Not a market mover today, but it shapes the operating environment for 2026 and beyond.

Takeaway: A massive relief rally closed the quarter, but the drivers were geopolitical headlines, not fundamental improvement. Oil, gold, and the dollar all reinforced the tightening regime. Big green days happen inside corrections. The structure hasn't changed.