Good morning. Oil is the story again. Brent surged another 2.5% overnight to $115.45 a barrel after Yemen's Houthis fired missiles at Israel, deepening the Hormuz crisis further. Brent is now up over 55% in March, on track for its steepest monthly gain on record.
WTI is trading around $103.06. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for the fifth week, with daily transits down 90-95% from normal levels. Iran's toll booth system is still running, charging up to $2 million per ship. Pakistan secured a deal to send 20 vessels through but that's a drop in the ocean.
Trump's April 6 deadline to reopen the strait is a week away and there's no real progress to show for it. The DAX opened at 22,857 but sold off hard, now sitting around 22,502. Strong sell signals across the board. Europe is feeling the energy squeeze more than anyone.
US futures are pointing slightly higher this morning. S&P futures at 6,437, Dow futures at 45,585, Nasdaq futures at 23,400. A modest bounce after Friday's brutal session that saw the Dow drop 793 points and close in correction territory at 45,167. This is an Easter-shortened week with markets closed Friday.
Asia got hit. Nikkei fell 2.79% to 51,886. Hang Seng lost over 1%. The oil price shock is rippling through import-heavy economies.
Not great. BTC at $67,194 is actually holding up, one of the few green numbers this morning. ETH at $1,996 is weaker but stable. Gold pulled back to $4,439 from last week's highs near $4,525.
Some profit-taking, but the safe haven bid is still intact. Big data week ahead. ISM Manufacturing tomorrow, JOLTS on Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, jobs report Friday (released while markets are closed). If inflation keeps running hot on the back of $115 Brent, that rate hike talk isn't going away.
One of those mornings where everything connects back to one barrel of oil.