Good morning. Oil just blew past $111 and that's the number driving everything this Tuesday. Iran submitted a new proposal through Pakistani mediators over the weekend, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its blockade and the war ends. Nuclear talks would come later. Trump's national security team is reviewing it, but the White House wants nukes on the table now, not later. Markets aren't buying a quick deal.

Brent crude surged 2.7% to $111.09 this morning, with WTI up 2.2% at $98.50. The Strait has been effectively shut for nine weeks now, and the IEA is calling this the largest energy supply disruption on record. Every day it stays closed, the pressure builds.

European markets opened cautiously higher. The DAX closed Monday at 24,084 after another weak session, down 45 points. Energy names are catching bids from oil but the broader mood is wait-and-see. Bayer dropped 3.6%, Qiagen lost over 7%. Not a great look outside of energy.

US futures are mixed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs on Monday. S&P at 7,173, Nasdaq at 24,887, Dow at 49,168. But the records feel fragile. This is FOMC week, Powell's last meeting as chair, and nobody wants to get caught leaning the wrong way before Wednesday.

In Asia, the Nikkei pulled back 0.5% after hitting a record on Monday. Hang Seng slipped 0.2% to 25,926. Profit-taking after the run.

Bitcoin is holding at $78,112, Ethereum at $2,328. Both basically flat, waiting for the Fed. Gold at $4,702, still elevated on safe-haven flows. The oil spike keeps inflation fears alive, which keeps gold supported. Same loop.

On today's calendar: consumer confidence data, plus earnings from Coca-Cola, UPS, Visa, and Starbucks. Google reports tomorrow after the close. Big week is officially underway.

Numbers and updates throughout the day.