Good morning. Today is the day. The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting this afternoon, and the decision at 2pm ET will be Jerome Powell's last as chair. His term expires May 15, Kevin Warsh's confirmation is all but done, and this press conference will be watched as much for the goodbye as for the guidance. Rates will hold at 3.50-3.75%. Nobody doubts that. The question is whether Powell leaves any parting signal on inflation, oil, or the path forward.

Oil is the elephant in the room. Brent surged to $111.57, highest since March, as the Iran stalemate drags on. Hormuz remains effectively closed, nine weeks into the conflict. Trump reportedly rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the strait without nuclear concessions. WTI pushed above $100 for the first time in weeks. No resolution, no relief.

European markets closed slightly lower ahead of the Fed, with the DAX at 24,084 (-0.19%) and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.52%. Cautious positioning across the board. The ECB meets Thursday, Bank of England right after. Three central banks in three days.

US markets slipped on Tuesday. S&P 500 closed at 7,138 (-0.49%), Nasdaq at 24,663 (-0.9%), Dow at 49,141. Tech got hit hardest after reports that OpenAI missed its own revenue targets. Futures are pointing slightly higher this morning, S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%. Markets waiting, not trading.

In Asia, Japan was closed for Showa Day. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.2%, one of the few green spots.

Bitcoin sits at $76,580, still stuck below $80K after two failed attempts. Fear & Greed at 33. ETH at $2,278, drifting lower. Gold pulled back to $4,596, down nearly 2% yesterday as the dollar strengthened ahead of the Fed. The stronger dollar thesis MCO has been tracking continues to pressure both crypto and metals.

On today's calendar: FOMC decision at 2pm ET, Powell's press conference at 2:30pm. GDP first estimate also due this morning. And it's Big Tech earnings week, with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the bell.

Powell's last act. The end of an era, one way or another.