Good morning.

Trump extended the Iran ceasefire last night, dropping the Wednesday deadline and leaving it open-ended "until negotiations conclude." Sounds like progress. But Iran refused to show up in Islamabad, Vance canceled his trip, and the naval blockade stays in place. So the ceasefire continues, but talks don't. That's the setup this Wednesday morning.

Oil & Energy
Oil is pricing it accordingly. Brent crude is back at $98.31, WTI at $89.49, both up over 2% from yesterday after Iran made clear it won't reopen the Strait of Hormuz while US ships keep intercepting vessels. Nearly 13 million barrels a day still offline. The $100 mark on Brent feels inevitable at this point unless something changes fast, and nothing suggests it will.

Europe
European markets are expected to open about 0.3% lower. The DAX closed Friday near 24,702 and has been whipsawing all week on ceasefire headlines. Every extension buys time but doesn't solve the supply problem, and European industrials feel that more than most.

US Markets
US futures are green this morning. S&P 500 futures at 7,137, up 0.52%. Dow futures up 246 points to 49,585, Nasdaq leading with a 0.67% gain. Tuesday's session told a different story though, all three indices closing lower as the original deadline loomed. The extension gave overnight traders something to work with.

Asia
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei hit a fresh record at 59,691. Hong Kong wasn't buying it. Hang Seng dropped 1.32%.

Crypto & Gold
Bitcoin pushed to $77,340 overnight, its highest level in weeks, and ETH is holding around $2,323. Gold sits at $4,759, catching a bid on safe-haven flows but still well below its March highs. The pattern is familiar: risk assets creep up on ceasefire hopes while gold stays elevated because nobody actually trusts the peace process.

No major US economic data on today's calendar. All eyes stay on Islamabad and whether Iran changes its mind about showing up.

Ceasefire without talks is just a pause. Markets know it.