MCO Morning Wrap | Holding Pattern Before Tomorrow's CPI

Good morning. Markets are in a holding pattern this morning, steadier after Monday's bounce but going nowhere fast with tomorrow's CPI sitting right in front of everyone. Calm, but the kind of calm that is really just waiting.

Oil is easing back. Brent is near 93 dollars after closing around 94, with WTI down near 91, as last week's war premium leaks out following Iran's claim it had ended operations against Israel. OPEC+ also waved through another July output bump, about 188,000 barrels a day. Still, the Strait of Hormuz is barely functioning, tanker traffic down 90 to 95 percent from pre-war levels, so nobody is calling the all-clear.

Europe is firmer. The DAX is up about 0.7 percent near 24,790, catching a bid as the Middle East headlines cool a little. After last week's pressure, even a quiet green morning feels like progress over there.

Wall Street comes in off a decent Monday. The S&P closed at 7,405 and the Nasdaq at 25,929, both higher as chips clawed back, Micron up close to 10 percent on the day after Friday's beating. The Dow lagged, off a touch. Futures are quiet this morning, the tape clearly not wanting to commit ahead of the inflation print.

Asia was steadier overnight, taking its cue from Monday's US bounce. No drama, just a follow-through session.

Crypto is holding the bounce. Bitcoin is near 62,900 dollars after reclaiming the 60,000 line it lost over the weekend, with Ethereum around 1,674, up almost 4 percent. Gold steadied near 4,330 after Monday's slip under 4,300, a two-month low. Same rate story pulling the strings on all of it.

Quiet on data today. Everything points at tomorrow's May CPI, then PPI Thursday and Michigan sentiment Friday, all of it landing right before next week's Fed meeting.

So a steady tape, but a coiled one. Nobody wants to be wrong-footed when Wednesday's number hits.

We'll be watching the print.