Good morning. Yesterday's PCE came in hot, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh records anyway, and the Fed's rate cut math just got harder. Today is end-of-month positioning into a Friday session that already feels less convinced.

The PCE Print. Core PCE for April hit 3.8 percent year over year, up from 3.5 in March and 2.8 in February. Monthly print 0.4 percent. Not a one-off, this is a trend. Yet stocks closed green. Algorithms read it as 'priced in,' bulls read it as 'cycle peak,' and the Fed gets stuck holding both bags.

US futures soft. S&P 500 futures down 0.1 percent, Nasdaq futures flat, Dow futures slightly red. VIX futures ticking up after Thursday's calm close. The market doesn't seem worried, but it's no longer leaning long either. Month-end portfolio rebalancing tends to bring real flows on Friday afternoons.

Bonds and the dollar. 10-year yields above 4.5 percent, the highest since early April. Mortgage rates holding near 6.65. The dollar index caught a bid into the close and is holding it. Both prints fit the MCO thesis on a confirmed dollar bottom and tightening conditions.

Oil pulls back. Brent down to 91, off about 1.5 percent from yesterday's 97 print. Reports of a Strait of Hormuz reopening pathway, even if loose, took the geopolitical premium back out. The chop we wrote about yesterday is exactly what's playing out. Spot rallies on strikes, fades on hints of de-escalation.

Crypto. Bitcoin trading between 73,500 and 74,750, volatile but holding the 72,000 zone we flagged. ETF outflows are still the story. Eight days and counting. If today flips to a net inflow print, that's a real signal.

Asia. Tokyo May CPI tonight is the only major calendar event in the region. Asian equities benefited from oil's pullback overnight.

Today. Watch month-end flows into the close. Watch whether oil holds 90 or breaks lower. Watch the dollar. PCE was a Fed problem, not a market problem yesterday. That can change fast on a Friday.