Good morning. The Iran story is back at the wheel today after reports the U.S. military will brief Trump on potential strikes, and that single line is bleeding through every corner of the market. Risk is being trimmed, oil is whippy, gold is firm. One driver. That's all it takes.
Brent printed a fresh wartime high above $126 overnight before fading hard to around $114.70, down 2.8% on the session, while WTI is sitting near $105.12. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Trump has rejected Tehran's reopening proposal and the blockade stays in place until a nuclear framework is agreed. Both contracts are still up roughly 60% since the war kicked off in late February. Different cause, same signal.
Europe is opening softer on the back of it. DAX futures point about 0.7% lower, FTSE nudges down 0.1%. Earnings are heavy, Volkswagen, BNP, Glencore, Unilever, Stellantis and BASF all reporting into the open, and euro zone Q1 GDP plus April CPI hit at 10am London. A lot to digest before lunch.
Stateside, yesterday's tape was tired. The Dow lost 280 points to 48,861.81, its fifth red day in a row. S&P barely moved at 7,135.95, Nasdaq ticked up to 24,673.24. Futures are mildly green this morning but Big Tech earnings are loaded into the back half of the week. Nobody's leaning hard either way.
Asia closed weaker. Nikkei 59,284.92, off 1.06% as Tokyo reopened from holiday. Hang Seng around 25,814, down 1.27%. The Iran headline didn't help.
Crypto stays heavy. Bitcoin sits near $76,160 after touching $75,600 overnight, ETH around $2,268. Gold is doing what gold does, $4,566 spot and pressing back toward $4,600. And it shows.
Today's calendar: US Q1 GDP first read, PCE deflator, Initial Claims, ECI, all at 8:30. ECB and BOE decisions in focus. Big Tech earnings after the bell.
Iran is the wire everything else is hanging from this morning. Pull it and most of these moves unwind in a hurry.
More as it develops.
MCO Morning Wrap: Iran Fears Drive Oil Whips, Risk-Off Open
Iran is back at the wheel. Reports of a U.S. military briefing on potential strikes are bleeding through every market this morning, with oil whippy, equities risk-off and gold firm.