Good morning. The Iran story flipped overnight. Trump paused the planned attack on Iran for negotiations after Tehran sent a new peace proposal to Washington. Oil eased, Asian markets mostly opened higher in early trade then mixed, and US futures are barely positive. The catch is that yields kept ripping despite the geopolitical de-escalation. 10-year Treasury hit 4.659% in overnight trading, the highest since February 2025, before retracing to 4.591%. Markets are stuck between two stories pulling opposite directions.

Brent fell 2.04% to $109.81, WTI down 1.12% to $107.44. The peace proposal plus reports that the US offered a temporary oil sanctions waiver as part of the deal took the immediate war premium off. Hormuz is still effectively closed and structural supply tightness has not gone away, so the pullback is contained, not a reversal.

In Europe, last night's session closed mixed ahead of today's open. DAX will start Tuesday into the de-escalation news with industrials likely catching a bid that energy gives back. Stoxx 600 follows.

US markets closed mixed Monday. Dow rose 0.32% to 49,686, S&P 500 slipped 0.07% to 7,403, Nasdaq dropped 0.51% to 26,091. Tech under pressure as yields ripped. Tuesday futures barely positive: S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Dow +25 points.

In Asia, Nikkei lost 1.75% to 58,475, Hang Seng minus 0.89%, Shanghai minus 0.1%, ASX 200 slightly down. India's Sensex bucked the trend at plus 0.65%. Japan's Q1 GDP printed 2.1% annualized, beating the 1.7% consensus.

Bitcoin sits around $76,755 after a 2.3% drop overnight to fresh lows since May 1. $500 million in crypto longs liquidated through the Asian early session. Gold near $4,495 from yesterday's slide. The metals complex still struggling against the yield squeeze.

On the calendar today: building permits, housing starts. Wednesday brings the big triple: FOMC Minutes, Nvidia earnings, Target earnings.

Iran flipped. Yields did not. Watch which one wins the rest of the week.

That's the setup. Let's see how it plays out.