Good morning. Markets are walking on a knife edge into Trump's 8 p.m. ET Hormuz deadline tonight, and every desk in the world is pricing the same question: does Iran blink, or does this thing escalate by sundown. One headline today decides the week.

Oil is doing what oil does when the Strait of Hormuz is the lead story. WTI sits around $113.42 and Brent near $110.05, both bid as the largest supply disruption in history grinds on. Oman is still trying to broker safe passage, a UK-led coalition of 40 countries is making noise, and Trump is now floating the idea of charging tolls through Hormuz once the war ends. Not exactly de-escalation talk.

Europe is cautious but not panicking. The DAX is hovering just above 23,160 after last week's whipsaw, helped a bit by German factory orders coming in at +1.2% versus the 0.5% forecast. ECB cut odds for April 17 have slipped to about 75% from 90% a week ago. Traders want to see the Hormuz outcome before committing.

The US closed Monday on hope, not conviction. S&P 500 finished at 6,611.83 (+0.44%), Dow added 165 points to 46,670, Nasdaq 100 up 0.8%. All of it built on a rumored 45-day truce that nobody can actually confirm. Futures are flat to soft pre-open. Different cause, same signal as last week: nobody wants to be long into a deadline.

Asia was thin. Nikkei closed at 53,413.68, up 0.55%, riding the same ceasefire whispers. Hang Seng stayed shut for the Easter holiday, so no read from Hong Kong today.

Crypto is dragging its feet. BTC around $68,766 and ETH near $2,114, both basically flat and a touch heavy. Total cap slipped 0.5% to $2.43T. And gold, predictably, keeps catching every bid it can find, holding around $4,685 an ounce. When oil is this hot and a deadline is this close, gold doesn't need a story. It just sits there and works.

Today's calendar is mostly noise next to the 8 p.m. deadline. A few second-tier US data points, some Fed speakers, the usual Tuesday flow. Nothing that moves the tape if Hormuz moves first.

The setup is simple, even if the outcome isn't. One man, one deadline, one waterway, and roughly every asset class hanging off it. Not great.

We'll be watching.