Good morning. Oil is running the show again. WTI closed at $111.54 on Wednesday after Trump's national address on Iran offered no ceasefire, no exit plan, and a warning of more military action over the next two to three weeks. Brent settled at $109.03. Markets tried to shake it off but the damage was already done by midday.

Brent and WTI are both sitting above $109 and that's with 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already released under Bessent's temporary sanctions waiver, which expires April 19. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to normal commercial traffic for over a month now. Iran is running a yuan-based toll booth system for select vessels. Goldman still estimates a $14 to $18 per barrel risk premium baked into current prices, and that number could grow if Trump follows through on his escalation language.

The DAX slipped to around 22,975 on Wednesday, down about 1.4%. European equities are struggling to find direction with oil keeping inflation expectations elevated and the ECB boxed in. Defense and energy are still the only sectors catching consistent bids. European markets are closed today for Good Friday.

US markets were a mess early on Wednesday but clawed back most of the losses. The S&P 500 closed at 6,582.69, up 0.11%. Nasdaq finished at 21,879.18, up 0.18%. The Dow was the laggard, down 61 points at 46,504.67. The reversal came after Iranian state media reported that Tehran and Oman are working on a protocol to monitor ship traffic through Hormuz. Not a reopening, but enough to calm some nerves. Wall Street is closed today for Good Friday.

In Asia, the Nikkei bounced 0.95% to 52,964. Hang Seng opened around 25,254, giving back a little after Wednesday's 2% recovery.

Bitcoin is holding around $68,536 after a 3% bounce earlier this week. ETH at $2,059. Spot ETF inflows resumed at $69.4 million, which is modest but at least positive. Gold pulled back sharply to $4,690 after touching higher levels, with silver around $71.39. The correction in metals is notable given the risk environment. Probably just profit-taking.

Most major markets are shut for Good Friday. Thin liquidity in crypto and commodities futures, which is where things can get jumpy. Any Hormuz headline over the long weekend could set the tone for Monday's open.

Quiet tape, loud backdrop. Have a good one.