Good morning. Markets reopen Monday to a different setup than they closed Friday. Trump issued an Iran ultimatum on Truth Social Sunday evening with clock is ticking language and US Air Force airlift reports confirming weapons moving to the region. Oil futures spiked, crypto sold off, and equity futures slipped overnight. Geopolitical risk just jumped back to the top of the queue.

Brent crude futures jumped 2.21% to $111.67, WTI climbed 2.83% to $108.40. Hyperliquid oil perps topped $106 with open interest above $481 million. Hormuz was already strained before this. The combination of stalled ceasefire talks, weapons airlift, and Trump's rhetoric points toward another supply disruption episode if the messaging escalates further.

In Europe, the DAX closed Friday around 24,136 after a cautious session. Industrials and exporters open Monday into the same Iran headlines, with energy stocks likely catching a bid and the broader index facing pressure from input cost worry. Stoxx 600 will mirror.

US markets closed Friday in the red. S&P 500 around 7,420 after dropping 1.1%, Nasdaq off 1.54% to roughly 26,180, Dow down 0.8%. Futures slipped further overnight on the Iran news. The records from Thursday feel a long way off.

In Asia, Nikkei lost 0.9% Friday and Hang Seng minus 0.39%. Monday opens straight into the weekend's geopolitical shift with Asian futures already lower.

Bitcoin dived below $77,000 Sunday evening, with $580 million liquidated in four hours, $550 million of that in longs. ETH down alongside. Gold around $4,617 from Friday's close, likely catching a fresh bid into Monday Asia. Risk-off across the complex.

On the calendar this week: FOMC Minutes from Powell's last meeting Wednesday, Nvidia and Target earnings same day, Walmart and S&P PMI Thursday. Plus whatever Warsh signals as new Fed chair.

Iran headlines could be the dominant macro driver again before the data even matters. Stay sharp out there.