Good morning. US futures are sharply higher after reports that President Trump told aides he's willing to end military operations in Iran within weeks, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. S&P 500 futures up 0.87%, Dow futures adding 432 points. Feels like the first real signal that this conflict might have an expiration date.

Oil is reacting but not in the way you'd expect. Brent at $112.90, WTI at $101.50. Both off their highs but still elevated. The Hormuz situation hasn't changed, petroleum shipments are still down, and Iran rejected the latest US terms. Brent is up about 55% for March alone, the biggest monthly surge in the contract's history dating back to 1988. That number is hard to process.

Europe is catching a bid. DAX up 1.18% to 22,563, Euro Stoxx 50 at 5,544. But zoom out and March has been brutal. The Stoxx 600 is on pace for an 8.5% monthly decline, the worst since the Covid lockdowns in early 2020. Today's green doesn't undo that.

Monday in the US was a mixed session. Dow eked out 50 points to close at 45,216. S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. Chipmakers got hit, Micron down nearly 10%, while energy and utilities kept climbing. Clear rotation into defensives and hard assets.

Asia closed mostly lower. Nikkei dropped 1.58% to 51,064. Hang Seng was marginally down. China's CSI 300 fell 0.93%. Trump's war comments didn't land the same way in Asian hours. India was closed for a holiday.

Crypto stays under pressure. BTC at $66,646, fear index at 11. Extreme fear, and prices confirm it. ETH at $2,065, holding up slightly better but the bigger picture is clear. Total crypto market cap at $2.39 trillion. No floor in sight while the macro picture stays this uncertain. Gold at $4,472, also weak. Down 14% for March, on pace for its worst month since October 2008. Even the safe haven gets liquidated when margin calls hit.

On today's calendar: Tokyo CPI data and China's official PMIs, both already out. US side is lighter, end of Q1 positioning likely to dominate.

Last day of March and the last day of a quarter nobody will want to remember. Let's see if the peace signal holds.