This might be the busiest week of the year so far. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, Big Tech reports earnings, and we get the first look at Q1 GDP. All of it against a backdrop of oil above $105 and the Hormuz strait still shut.

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday afternoon. Markets aren’t expecting a rate change, but the tone matters. With Brent at $105 and inflation pressures building from the energy side, any hint that rate hikes are back on the table could rattle things fast. The S&P closed Friday at a record 7,165 and the Nasdaq at 24,837. Both look stretched if the Fed turns hawkish.

Then there’s earnings. Google reports Tuesday, Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday. That’s five of the biggest companies on earth in three days. After Intel’s blowout last week lifted the whole chip sector, the bar is high. AI spending and guidance will be the thing everyone watches. If even one of them disappoints on AI revenue, sentiment shifts quick.

Thursday also brings Q1 GDP and the PCE deflator. If growth slowed while prices stayed hot, that’s the worst combo for risk assets. Stagflation talk would get loud.

Bitcoin sits near $78,000, up 13% in April but stalling just under $80K. The FOMC could be what breaks it one way or the other. Gold is around $4,714, still pressured by rate fears despite the geopolitical chaos.

A lot can happen in five days. Stay sharp.