The Iran deadline lands Monday. Everything else comes second.

Trump gave Iran until 8 PM Eastern on April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. As of Friday close, there is no deal, no confirmed back-channel, and no sign of de-escalation. WTI settled at $111 and Brent at $109. If strikes happen, oil could spike past $130. If a deal materializes over the weekend, expect a sharp pullback toward $95-100. Either way, Sunday night futures will set the tone for the entire week.

The data calendar is loaded but secondary to geopolitics. ISM Services lands Monday, and markets want to see if the services economy is holding up after the manufacturing PMI disappointed last week. FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday, but they cover the March meeting, which is old news at this point. The real number is Thursday: CPI for March, with consensus at 3.4% year over year. A hot print would tighten the screws further on any rate cut hopes. A soft print gives the Fed room, but Iran noise could drown it out regardless.

Delta reports Q1 earnings Wednesday morning. Airlines are the canary for consumer spending and fuel cost pressure. With jet fuel prices tracking crude higher, expect margin compression to dominate the call. Forward guidance matters more than the Q1 numbers here.

Bitcoin sits at $66,860. Ethereum at $2,059. Crypto is stuck in correction mode, and without a shift in risk appetite, rallies remain counter-trend. BTC dominance is still elevated, meaning no rotation into alts. The macro regime of dollar strength and rising yields keeps pressure on digital assets. A geopolitical shock either way could trigger a volatility spike, but the trend remains down until proven otherwise.

Gold pulled back to $4,661 after touching $4,797 earlier in the week. The correction is healthy and expected within the larger wave 4 structure. One more dip into April is possible before the next leg higher resumes. Silver is holding near $51. Both remain the strongest structural longs in this environment once the correction completes.

The S&P 500 closed at 6,571. Friday's 1.4% bounce after the jobs report was strong but reads as a counter-trend rally within the corrective phase. The thesis remains: late-stage top is in, only counter-trend bounces expected, with 5-9% further downside still possible toward the 5,814-6,072 zone. NASDAQ remains weaker than the S&P, with tech leading the downside.

This is a week where the calendar says data but the market says geopolitics. Iran is the variable that overrides everything. Trade small, stay alert, and let the Sunday night open tell you what kind of week it will be.