The Islamabad talks collapsed. 21 hours at the table and Vance walked away saying Tehran wouldn’t commit on the nuclear file. Iran blames “excessive demands.” Pakistan says it’ll keep mediating, but the diplomatic window is narrowing fast. Oil is sitting at $95.20, consumer sentiment just hit a record low, and the Fed can’t move. That’s the backdrop heading into a loaded week.

Bank earnings dominate early. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock all report Tuesday. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow Wednesday. These are the first real Q1 numbers from the big banks, and the market wants to know how loan demand, credit quality and trading revenues held up under the oil shock and rate uncertainty. Any signs of consumer stress in credit card data or loan loss provisions will land hard given the Michigan sentiment reading. Thursday brings Netflix Q1, where Wall Street expects $12.17B in revenue and a 32% operating margin. The ad tier scaling is the story there.

On the data side, industrial production drops Wednesday. Retail sales got pushed to April 21, so there’s a gap in the consumer picture. Fed-wise, Goolsbee speaks Tuesday. The FOMC doesn’t meet until April 28-29, but with June cut odds at just 18% and nearly half the market pricing zero cuts all year, every Fed comment will get dissected. Our macro read: DXY pushing toward 100.50, TLT holding $86.53 by a thread above $85, and equities still in corrective territory. The S&P at 6,817 has room to slip further if banks disappoint. Lots of puzzle pieces this week. Not all of them fit yet.