Good Sunday. The week ahead is built around two things: Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls print and what Iran does next on Hormuz. Both can reset the tape.

Start with jobs. NFP Friday is the first labor read since Thursday's hot PCE (3.8 percent year over year). A soft hiring print with unemployment ticking up gives the September rate cut story new life. A firm print leaves the Fed with zero cover. Yields above 4.5 and a dollar bid into the close make the setup tense. Watch revisions to prior months. That's where surprises usually hide.

Iran reset the Hormuz rules this weekend, requiring mandatory tanker routes and threatening any foreign warship that interferes. Brent closed Friday at 92.47 after fading on US-Iran peace talk hopes. Monday open will tell us how the market weighs the new directive against the deal track. Both threads stay live.

ISM Manufacturing Monday and ISM Services Thursday give the tariff pass-through read. After Dell popped 30 percent Friday, tech earnings momentum is real but selective. AI capex commentary in upcoming calls becomes the tell for where infrastructure spending heads into Q3.

BTC at 74,000 with eight straight days of ETF outflows. Soft NFP could break the streak, hot NFP could extend it. Gold at 4,571 keeps absorbing every macro headwind, which says the structural bid isn't going anywhere.

End-of-month rebalancing clears Monday. Then the data takes over.

Worth watching.