Oil is still running the show. Brent closed near $113 on Friday, WTI just under $100, and as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, nothing else really matters as much as it normally would. That's the thread carrying into next week. And it connects to almost everything on the calendar.
Monday kicks off with Germany's CPI and Japan's inflation numbers. Both matter because central banks globally are stuck in the same trap right now. Energy costs are doing the heavy lifting on inflation, which means rate cuts keep getting pushed further out. Our macro view has been flagging this exact setup.
Dollar strength, tightening conditions, risk assets under pressure. Nothing in the data so far has changed that picture. Tuesday gets busy. China's NBS PMI, Eurozone CPI, UK GDP, and Japan's Tankan survey all drop on the same day.
If China's manufacturing data comes in soft again, that's another drag on commodities demand outside of oil. Eurozone CPI will probably stay hot thanks to energy. Not great for the ECB either. Wednesday is the big one for U.S. markets.
ISM Manufacturing and ADP employment data. Both will give a read on whether the economy is holding together or starting to crack under the weight of $100+ oil. Consumer confidence on Monday sets the tone. If that comes in weak, Wednesday's data will carry even more weight.
Then Friday. Nonfarm payrolls on Good Friday, with markets closed. Consensus is +57K jobs after last month's -92K loss. If that number disappoints, nobody can react until Monday.
That kind of gap creates volatility. Worth being aware of. BTC is sitting around $66,600 this weekend. Holding up relatively well compared to equities, but still down almost 25% year-to-date.
Our technical structure still points to further correction, and if the labor market data disappoints while oil stays elevated, that combination doesn't help risk assets. The $68K level remains the one to watch. Gold near $4,400 is interesting. Correcting within what still looks like a longer-term bullish setup.
If inflation data stays sticky next week, gold could find a floor sooner than expected. Short week, heavy calendar. And a jobs report nobody can trade until Monday the 7th. Stay sharp.