We come into the week with stocks at fresh records, Powell's clock running out, and Iran still the variable nobody can size. S&P closed Friday at 7,398.93 after a strong April jobs print, and now the macro stage rotates to inflation.

CPI on Tuesday is the main event. Headline expected up 0.6% on the month thanks to oil pass-through, core around 0.3%. If it prints hot, the soft-landing crowd has a problem and gold gets another reason to bid. If it cools, risk grinds higher. Either way, this print sets the tone for the rest of the week.

Powell's term ends Friday. The full Senate is expected to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination, possibly mid-week. Worth watching front-end rates and the dollar around it. Leadership transitions at the Fed almost never go unnoticed.

Iran is in the slow-burn phase. Tehran is reviewing the latest US peace memo, both sides reportedly drifting toward a 30-day framework. Brent sits near $100, WTI around $96, both already off the wartime highs. A breakthrough caps oil quickly, breakdown does the opposite.

On the tape, AMD and Apple already cleared. The rotation now moves to consumer and chips: Cisco Tuesday, Applied Materials Thursday, Walmart Thursday. AMAT is the AI tell.

BTC tagged $81K last week and held the $1.6T cap, ETH around $2,327. Quiet by recent standards. If CPI cools, crypto gets a tailwind.

Lots of inputs, one binary print at the center. CPI does the heavy lifting.