Markets head into next week with last week's macro pivot still unresolved. Three hot inflation prints, the 10-year yield ripping to a one-year high, S&P and Nasdaq giving back records, silver flushed 7%, Bitcoin sliding through the weekend to $77,800. The setup is no longer Fed cuts coming, buy everything. Now it's a real test of how much of that thesis can survive a week with FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings, and the consumer all hitting at once.

Wednesday is the gravity day. FOMC Minutes from Powell's final meeting drop at 2pm ET, and three dissenters last time mean the language will matter more than usual. Same afternoon: Nvidia earnings after the close. Wall Street expects $1.78 EPS on $78.98 billion. The AI infrastructure trade has been bleeding all week, Cerebras already gave back day-one gains, and the H200 China shipment news is priced in. Nvidia has to deliver and guide higher, not just beat.

Thursday brings Walmart and S&P PMI prelim. Walmart is the consumer read after Target Wednesday and Home Depot. If the tape softens on consumer pressure, the AI question becomes a market question. PMI prelim could either confirm or undercut Empire State's hot prices paid print from last week.

Geopolitics keeps simmering. The Trump-Xi summit ended with rhetoric but few concrete signed deals. Iran-Hormuz remains the oil wild card and the Warsh-era Fed inherits the war's inflation tail. Worth watching whether Warsh signals anything early in his first week as chair.

Crowded week. Plenty to test.