One man set the tone for the whole week, and it was not who you would expect. Kevin Warsh ran his first Fed meeting on Wednesday, held rates, then turned hawkish, with the dot plot now pointing to a 2026 rate hike and forward guidance scrapped. That flipped the mood and sent the dollar to its highest since May 2025. The dollar ended up being the story behind everything.

It started friendly. Markets jumped Monday on news the US and Iran had agreed to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the Dow tagged a record near 52,000 on Tuesday. Oil tumbled to three-month lows as the war premium drained out. Then Warsh spoke, stocks sold off Wednesday, and the tone shifted to higher-for-longer.

Crypto took it hardest. Bitcoin opened the week near 66,000 and slid to around 62,500 by Friday, with Ether falling from about 1,790 to 1,690. Gold slipped to around 4,158, silver fell below 65, both squeezed by the same strong dollar. If it did not pay interest, it struggled.

The Iran story did not stay clean either. The follow-up talks in Switzerland collapsed Friday after Iran balked over Israel's campaign in Lebanon, and oil snapped back, WTI up over 2 percent. In Europe the DAX still managed a 1.6 percent week, led by defense names. US markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth.

Next week is about the dollar. As long as it stays strong, gold and crypto stay on the back foot. Watch the inflation data.

Have a good one. Back Monday.