Oil ran this week. Everything else just reacted to it.

The week started optimistic. On Tuesday, markets rallied hard into the quarter close on hopes the Iran conflict might wind down within weeks. The Dow surged over 1,000 points, the S&P 500 jumped 2.9%, and oil briefly dipped below $101 as traders priced in a quicker resolution. That mood lasted about 48 hours. On Thursday, Trump gave a prime-time address that Wall Street read as escalation, not progress. He warned of hitting Iran "extremely hard," oil spiked 11% in a single session, WTI blew past $111, and the Dow gave back 600 points. Brent settled around $109. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut, with shipping down 90-95% since the war started on February 27. That's the number that matters.

Despite the Thursday reversal, major indices closed the shortened week higher. S&P 500 finished near 6,571, up about 3.4% on the week. Nasdaq gained 4.4%. The DAX added 3.9% but got hit on Thursday too, closing at 22,772. Markets were shut Friday for Good Friday so it all just sat there over the long weekend.

The March jobs report dropped Friday morning. 178,000 jobs added, nearly triple the 60,000 expected. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3%. Wages came in soft at 3.5% annual growth, the lowest since 2021. Strong labor market, cooling wages. Fed's in no rush.

Tesla reported Q1 deliveries of 358,000, missing the 365,000 consensus. They also built 50,000 more cars than they sold. Inventory piling up.

BTC was flat on the week, hovering around $66,860. ETH at $2,059. Crypto fear index hit 9. Extreme fear. Not much buying conviction when oil is running and bombs are falling.

Gold stayed in its correction, trading around $4,661. The strong dollar and rising rate expectations continue to weigh on it despite all the geopolitical chaos. Paradox of this war: the dollar gets stronger, and gold doesn't benefit.

Short week, big swings. The Iran situation is still the only thing that really matters for direction. Rest up. Monday's coming fast.