Michigan Consumer Sentiment Crashes to Record Low 47.6
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in April, the lowest reading ever recorded. Down from 53.3 in March. 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%, driven by gas prices up nearly 40% since the Hormuz blockade began.
Our MCO macro framework has been clear on this sequence: oil higher means inflation stickier, which means the Fed stays pinned, which means financial conditions stay tight. This is that playing out in real time. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP and sentiment this weak usually leads spending by about one quarter. With the S&P at 6,817 and our technical view pointing to further corrective downside toward 5,814-6,072, the fundamental picture is catching up to what the charts already showed.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Crashes to Record Low 47.6
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.6 in April, the lowest reading ever recorded. Down from 53.3 in March. 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%, driven by gas prices up nearly 40% since the Hormuz blockade began. Our MCO macro framework has been clear on this sequence: oil higher means inflation stickier, which means the Fed stays pinned, which means financial conditions stay tight. Consumer spending is 70% of GDP and sentiment this weak usually leads spending by about one quarter. The fundamental picture is catching up to what the charts already showed.
