US Central Command launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz this morning.

Missile sites and vessels accused of laying naval mines. Brent jumped 3 percent to $97.16, WTI to $91.43.

Here's what's actually going on. Tuesday saw reports of an Iranian memorandum of understanding circulating. The White House dismissed it as untrue on Wednesday. Today, the strikes. A ceasefire that was supposed to hold is fraying in real time, and oil is finally noticing.

But not enough.

The futures curve still prices a quick end to this. December Brent sits well below the front month. Backwardation is steep, which historically means the market expects the supply scare to pass. Investors are positioned for headlines, not for a real disruption.

That's a problem. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 percent of global oil flow. If Iran follows through on threats to mine the strait or attack tanker traffic, that supply doesn't come back online with a tweet. Insurance rates for tankers transiting the strait have already doubled in the past week. Some operators are rerouting.

The MCO thesis on oil has been consistent. We expect higher prices in a B-wave, possibly to $135 plus, but the path is chaotic and unreliable. Today fits that exactly. Spot rallies on the strikes, then the curve fades it because nobody wants to sit on long exposure into a tweet that resolves the situation overnight. That's how you get violent chop without a sustained trend.

The real signal isn't the headline number. It's the spread between Brent and WTI, which widened today as Atlantic supply gets pricier relative to Gulf supply. It's also the dollar, which caught a bid alongside oil. Two safe-haven moves at once. That tells you the market is repricing real geopolitical risk, not just trading the news.

What to watch next. Iran's response. If retaliation hits within 48 hours, the curve starts to flatten and the back end catches up. If we get a stand-down, the spot price gives a lot back fast. Either way, the chop continues.

For the broader macro picture this matters. Powell's job just got harder. Oil prices feeding into headline inflation right before today's PCE print is not what the Fed wanted. If WTI sits above 90 into June, the September rate cut story gets weaker again.