Producer Price Index for April lands at 8:30 this morning, following yesterday's hot 3.8% headline CPI print. March PPI was up 4.0% YoY, the largest 12-month advance since early 2023. If today's print comes in hot too, the inflation pipeline argument gets a lot harder to dismiss. Treasury yields already at a 1-year high, rate-hike odds at 30% by year-end.
Powell's last full days at the Fed before the Warsh handoff Friday make this print landing even more politically loaded. The Fed transition really did pick the worst possible moment.