Silver Slides Again Toward 72 Dollars as Dollar Strength and Rate Fears Bite

Silver fell again on Friday, slipping to around 72.81 dollars an ounce, down roughly 1.4 percent on the day. The metal that nearly doubled over the past year is grinding lower, and the reasons line up cleanly. Less a single bad session, more a correction working itself out.

Since the Middle East conflict escalated in late February, with the Strait of Hormuz at a near standstill, energy prices have stayed high. That keeps inflation fears alive, which keeps pressure on central banks to hold rates higher for longer. Silver is still up nearly 100 percent over twelve months, but it now sits about 20 percent below its conflict-era high. A big run, then a step back.

Today's move was orderly. Silver traded near 72.81 dollars, down about 1.4 percent, and is off roughly 5.8 percent over the past month. Markets were cautious ahead of the May US employment report due today, the kind of data that moves rate expectations directly. And the dollar has been firm. The greenback and the metals tend to move in opposite directions day to day, so a stronger dollar pulls silver lower.

Gold slid alongside it, so this was a metals-wide move, not something specific to silver. Higher real-rate expectations are the common thread. When the market prices rates staying elevated, a non-yielding asset like silver loses some shine, at least short term. The jobs report is the near-term swing factor from here.

From our own Elliott Wave read, none of this breaks the bigger picture. Silver still looks to be in a wave 4 correction inside a larger uptrend, with the 50 dollar region the logical downside magnet before the next leg higher. The independent macro signals point the same way. Dollar strength, firmer rate expectations and a 20 percent drawdown all describe a corrective phase, not a trend that has rolled over.

That is the part worth holding onto. A metal up nearly 100 percent in a year, pulling back 20 percent, behaves like a bull market that needs a rest. Watch the jobs data and the dollar for the next cue. The market is the boss, not our opinion.