SpaceX Stock Blows Past Amazon, Up Over 50 Percent in Three Sessions Since the IPO

SpaceX is not done. Three sessions after the biggest IPO in history, the stock is up more than 50 percent from its 135 dollar offer price, trading near 207 dollars and pushing the company's market value to roughly 2.8 trillion. That just vaulted SpaceX past Amazon into the fifth most valuable public company in the world. Options on the stock also started trading today.

Rewind to Friday. SpaceX priced at 135, opened at 150, and closed its first day at 160.95, up 19 percent. Monday added more, and Tuesday it ran again. From IPO to now, that is one of the most violent megacap debuts anyone can remember, and it has handed Elon Musk a paper fortune that makes him the world's first trillionaire several times over.

The melt-up has a structure. SpaceX floated a relatively small slice of itself, so the tradable float is thin against enormous demand, and that mismatch sends price up fast. Retail piled in hard, helped by the unusually large 30 percent of the deal set aside for them. New options listings today add another layer of leverage and speculation on top. The result is a stock that gapped from a 1.8 trillion IPO valuation to 2.8 trillion in days.

And that is where it gets uncomfortable. SpaceX did roughly 18.7 billion in revenue, so a 2.8 trillion valuation works out to a price-to-revenue ratio around 150, far beyond any other megacap. The analysts who cover it have an average 12-month target near 164 dollars, below where it already trades, and Morningstar pegs fair value closer to 780 billion, less than a third of the current tag. The market and the models are not even in the same area code right now.

So the question shifts from how high to how durable. Thin floats cut both ways, the same scarcity driving this can reverse hard once lockups free up more supply and the early froth cools. The business underneath, mostly Starlink plus the new space-data-center bet, is real and growing, but it has to grow into a number the market invented in a week. Days like this are exciting and fragile at the same time.

SpaceX is now worth more than Amazon, on a fraction of the revenue, four days into being public. That is either the start of a new megacap or the top of a euphoria, and right now nobody can tell you which with a straight face. Records are easy this week. The bill comes later.