The uranium market is running a structural deficit and it is getting worse. Global mine production currently covers roughly 75% of annual reactor demand, with the rest filled by drawdowns from secondary supplies, government stockpiles, and recycled material. Those buffers are finite and shrinking. On the demand side, over 60 new reactors are under construction worldwide, mostly in China, India, and parts of the Middle East, with dozens more in the planning stage.
Kazatomprom, the world's largest producer, cut its 2026 output target by 10%, tightening supply further at exactly the wrong moment. New mines take 10-15 years from discovery to first production, which means even if every greenfield project got approved today, the gap would persist well into the 2030s. Uranium spot sits near $84 per pound. The structural math says it needs to go higher to incentivize the kind of investment the market actually requires.
This is not a speculative squeeze. It is a supply chain that spent a decade underinvesting and is now facing a wall of demand it cannot meet.