Trump backed down from his 8 p.m. ET deadline and agreed to a two-week ceasefire pushed by Pakistan's PM Sharif, after rejecting Iran's 10-point peace plan earlier in the day as 'not good enough.' The whole thing is conditional on Tehran agreeing to the 'COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING' of the Strait of Hormuz, which is the actual prize here.

Both sides had spent the morning rejecting a 45-day proposal, with Iran demanding a permanent end to the war and the US still hitting Iran's oil, rail and bridges overnight. Brent dropped to around $108.39 on the news, off from $109.77, and WTI has been swinging in a $111-$117 range all day.

After 38 days of escalation it's the first time the curve actually has a path that doesn't end with Kharg Island in flames. Hard to call it a deal when it's basically a pause with one big condition attached, but it's the most progress in weeks. Two weeks is a long time when there are 70 empty tankers waiting offshore.