Trump Says US-Iran Peace Deal Will Be Signed Sunday, Oil Tumbles

Donald Trump says the United States and Iran will sign a peace deal on Sunday, and markets have already started pricing it in. The framework would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the US blockade that has choked global energy supply for weeks. Oil fell hard into the weekend. Risk assets caught a bid. The end of the conflict, if it holds, removes the single biggest macro overhang of the spring.

Step back a few weeks. The US and Iran agreed a ceasefire on April 7 and 8 after more than five weeks of fighting that pulled in Israel. The truce kept breaking down, and the worst of it landed on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through. Iran shut it, reopened it, shut it again. That on-off blockade caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies on record and kept a war premium baked into every barrel. So this weekend's news goes straight at the thing markets cared about most.

The memorandum Trump described is detailed. A 60-day extension of the ceasefire. A return to pre-war shipping volumes through the Strait within 30 days, with Washington lifting its blockade. Iran agreeing not to enrich uranium for 15 to 20 years and to dismantle its nuclear sites over that window. In exchange, some sanctions get waived, enough to let Tehran sell oil again during the 60-day period. Signing is set for Sunday. Nothing is on paper yet, and prior versions of this ceasefire fell apart, so the market is pricing probability, not certainty.

Oil took it the hardest. WTI closed around 84.88 dollars on Friday, down about 3.2 percent, with Brent near 87.33, both at their lowest since early March. The war premium is draining out fast. Risk-on showed up elsewhere too. Bitcoin, which had briefly dropped below 60,000 dollars on Friday for the first time since October 2024, rebounded to around 64,000. Crypto-linked names like Coinbase, MARA, and Strategy bounced anywhere from 3 to 12 percent after a brutal prior session. Gold sat near 4,218, holding its recent highs.

The read here is straightforward. Less geopolitical risk, lower oil, easier inflation math, and more room for risk assets to breathe. If Hormuz reopens on schedule, the supply shock that drove crude into the mid-90s unwinds, and that filters into everything from airline costs to headline CPI. But the deal has to actually get signed and actually hold. This same ceasefire has cracked more than once already. Watch the Sunday signing, then watch whether the first tankers move through the Strait on the 30-day timeline. Words are cheap. Shipping data is not.

For two months the market traded the Strait of Hormuz like a switch that could flip the global economy. This weekend Trump says the switch is about to flip the other way. If the ink dries on Sunday and the tankers start moving, the spring's defining risk just turned into its defining relief. That is a big if, but it is finally on the table.