The analyst consensus keeps climbing. J.P. Morgan sees gold pushing toward $5,000 by Q4 2026, with $6,000 possible longer term. Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 in the first half of the year.
Deutsche Bank and Bank of America both forecast $6,000, citing de-dollarization and investment demand. Even the more conservative Reuters poll of 30 analysts has a median target of $4,746. Gold is currently at $4,831, so the base case says we're basically at fair value. The bull case says 25-30% upside from here.
The biggest wildcard is how the Iran ceasefire plays out. If it collapses Monday, gold could move fast.