What is JOLTS and why does the Fed watch it more than CPI?
JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It tracks how many open positions are sitting in the US economy, released monthly by the BLS with a one-month delay.
High job openings mean employers are still competing for workers, which keeps wage pressure alive. Wage pressure feeds back into services inflation, the sticky kind that's hardest for the Fed to slow.
This is why a 750K JOLTS beat (like this Tuesday's print at 7.618 million) hit markets harder than the same surprise in CPI would have. Markets price the Fed reaction, and the Fed reads JOLTS as a leading indicator for wages.
The takeaway: when traders say the Fed is data-dependent, they mean more than CPI. JOLTS, PCE, and the unemployment rate together tell the wage story. JOLTS is the early warning.
What is JOLTS and why does the Fed watch it more than CPI?
JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It tracks how many open positions are sitting in the US economy, released monthly by the BLS.
Sources
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