Good morning. The Hormuz blockade is officially in effect as of 10 a.m. ET Monday, and markets are trying to figure out what that actually means. Oil spiked above $103 on the announcement, then pulled back. Both sides are now signaling they’re open to more talks, which is doing just enough to keep things from spiraling.

Brent is trading around $98.05, WTI at $96.57. That’s well off yesterday’s $103 spike but still uncomfortably close to triple digits. The blockade allows non-Iranian port traffic through the strait, so this isn’t a full shutdown. But tanker volumes are way below pre-war levels and Iran is calling it piracy. The next round of talks could happen in Islamabad. Could.

The DAX closed near 24,037 on Monday, recovering from early losses after briefly dipping on the blockade headlines. European sentiment is cautious, with the Stoxx 600 ending 0.2% lower. Energy stocks caught a bid, everything else mostly bled.

US markets actually had a solid Monday. The S&P 500 closed at 6,886, up 1.02%, erasing its war-driven losses from earlier in the month. Dow finished at 48,218, Nasdaq at 23,184. But futures this morning are pointing lower, with S&P futures down 0.6% and Nasdaq futures off 0.7%. The rally ran into the blockade headline and stalled.

Asia didn’t get the memo. The Nikkei surged 2.43% to 57,877. Hang Seng added 0.76%. Tech led the charge across the region.

Crypto is ripping. Bitcoin broke through $74,336, its highest since before the war started, up 4.7% in 24 hours. ETH jumped 8.8% to $2,378. Over $430 million in short positions got liquidated. Gold is holding near $4,761, catching bids on the geopolitical risk but trading in a tight range between $4,701 and $4,760.

PPI data drops today. Producer prices for March. That’s the main macro release on the calendar. Fed speakers are quiet.

Two narratives fighting each other right now. Blockade says escalation, diplomatic signals say de-escalation. Markets are pricing in the talks, not the warships. We’ll see how long that lasts.