Qatar Says the Hormuz Talks Are Advanced and Six Ships Went Through

Qatar's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that talks between Oman and Iran on the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are at an advanced stage. On the same day, six vessels transited the strait against a recent average of eleven. Oil pared its earlier gains on the headline and then went up anyway, with Brent closing 1.68 percent higher at 89.19 dollars.

That gap between the diplomatic language and the shipping data is the whole trade right now, and it has been for weeks. Every week for a month somebody with standing has described these negotiations as close, final or advanced. Iran's foreign minister said final stages on the 2nd of August. Axios and CNN both had the deal nearing on the 5th. Traffic through the waterway has kept falling.

The reason it does not close is that the terms are not really about shipping. The draft recognises Iranian authority over the strait and gives Tehran control of inbound traffic. Iran wants 5 to 7 percent of cargo value as a transit fee. Oman has proposed about 3. A US official told the Washington Post that any temporary route must carry no approvals, no permissions, no tolls and no charges.

Iran has also been adding items rather than dropping them as the talks have gone on. It wants the naval blockade lifted, its frozen assets released and war compensation paid. Trump introduced new demands on reparations in the past few days, which is why Pakistan's defence minister describing the two sides as close to some sort of arrangement moved prices less than it would have a week ago.

Underneath all of it the physical position keeps deteriorating. Six transits in a day against eleven recently and roughly a hundred before the conflict. The US strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest in over four decades. Brent is up 6.59 percent on the month and 34.28 percent over the year despite OPEC+ completing the rollback of its 2023 production cuts on the 2nd of August.

So the market is being asked to price a deal whose economic terms are still open, whose signatories keep adding conditions, and whose subject matter is a waterway that carries about a fifth of the world's oil exports in a normal year. Advanced stage has meant a lot of things over the past month. Ship counts have meant one thing, and they are still going the wrong way.